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經濟學人:伊朗伊斯蘭革命四十年(1)

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The Iranian revolution at 40

伊朗革命40周年
How to deal with the mullahs
如何對付毛拉
The Islamic revolution has failed, but Donald Trump’s sanctions could prolong it
伊斯蘭革命已失敗,但唐納德·特朗普的制裁可能將其延長
The cry of “Death to America!” has rung out in Tehran every Friday since the Islamic revolution of 1979. But the ritual is hollow. The mullahs know they have failed their people. Iranians are much poorer than they should be; promises of justice have been drowned in the blood of enemies and supposed sinners; and theocracy has made Iranians less pious. Protests occur often, even among the poor who make up the regime’s base.
“美國去死吧!”自1979年伊斯蘭革命以來,每周五都有這樣的聲音在德黑蘭響起。但這種儀式虛有其表。毛拉們明白自己已失人心。伊朗人民本不應如此貧窮;公平的承諾已淹沒在敵人和所謂罪人的鮮血中。神權政治讓伊朗人少了些許虔誠。即使是構成政權基礎的窮人也經常發起抗議活動。

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Yet the mullahs remain in charge, despite war, sanctions and decades of enmity with America—or perhaps because of them. To the alarm of Israel and many Arab states, Iran has spread its influence, helping save the odious regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and ensuring that the Saudis remain bogged down in Yemen. Its Lebanese client, Hizbullah, poses a grave threat to Israel. In Europe Iranian spooks are accused of plotting to kill dissidents.

但盡管經歷了戰爭、制裁以及與美國數十年的敵對狀態(或許正是這些原因),毛拉們仍然掌權。伊朗擴大了自己的影響力,幫助拯救了敘利亞可憎的巴沙爾阿薩德政權,并確保沙特仍深陷也門泥潭,這讓以色列和諸多阿拉伯國家感到震驚。其黎巴嫩客戶真主黨對以色列構成了嚴重威脅。在歐洲,伊朗間諜被指控密謀殺害持不同政見者。
For President Donald Trump, Iran is a unique menace. He has abandoned Barack Obama’s nuclear deal in favour of tight sanctions. His officials will try to forge an anti-Iran alliance at a conference in Poland on February 13th-14th. In seeking “maximum pressure”, America may hope to stir another uprising to reverse the one of 1979. But it will probably make things worse.
對于美國總統唐納德•特朗普來說,伊朗是一個獨特的威脅。特朗普放棄了巴拉克•奧巴馬的核協議,轉而支持實施嚴厲制裁。其官員將在2月13日至14日在波蘭舉行的會議上試圖建立一個反伊朗聯盟。在尋求“最大壓力”的過程中,美國可能希望激起另一場起義來推翻1979年的起義。但這可能雪上加霜。
The mullahs have a woeful record. Their theocracy helped turn Islam into a tool of radical, and often violent, politics. But Iran’s was not the Middle East’s only convulsion in 1979. The siege of the grand mosque in Mecca stung Saudi Arabia into promoting its rival Sunni brand of ultra-puritanism at home and abroad. Together with America, the Saudis helped weaponise Sunnism by supporting mujahideen fighters against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Arabs who volunteered to fight with them became the godfathers of jihadism. America, pledging to protect Gulf oil against outsiders, was drawn deep into the region’s conflicts.
毛拉們有此悲慘經歷。其神權政治幫助伊斯蘭教成為激進的、通常是暴力的政治工具。但伊朗不是1979年中東唯一動蕩的地方。麥加大清真寺被圍困,促使沙特阿拉伯在國內外宣揚其競爭對手遜尼派的極端清教主義。沙特和美國一起,通過支持圣戰者抵抗蘇聯入侵阿富汗,幫助遜尼派武裝起來。阿拉伯人和遜尼派共同戰斗,成為圣戰主義的教父。美國承諾保護海灣地區的石油不受外來者的影響,因此深度卷入了該地區的沖突之中。

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